Model revenue, equity value, and 12-month forward projections for ad-supported and affiliate-driven websites.
| Metric | What it means | Healthy range |
|---|---|---|
| Display CPM | Revenue per 1,000 pageviews from display ads | $4–$20 (US, high-intent content) |
| Blended CPM | Effective CPM including affiliate revenue | $8–$40+ with strong affiliate mix |
| Pages Per Visit | Avg pageviews per session — drives total impressions | 1.5–4.0 for content sites |
| Affiliate % | Share of revenue from affiliate vs. display | Varies — affiliate can 3x effective CPM |
| Valuation Multiple | Equity value as a multiple of monthly revenue | 30–42x for stable sites; 20–28x for declining |
| Traffic Growth | Monthly session growth rate | >5%/mo is healthy; negative = red flag |
Content site acquisitions fail most often due to undisclosed traffic quality issues, pending Google algorithm updates, or seller-inflated CPM figures. Before closing:
Verify traffic in Google Search Console — not just Analytics. GSC shows which keywords are driving rankings and whether organic traffic is concentrated in a single topic area that could be wiped by a core update.
Verify revenue in ad network reports — ask the seller to share AdSense or Mediavine dashboard access. Month-by-month revenue, not just totals. Look for seasonal spikes being used to inflate the trailing 12-month average.
Check the backlink profile — thin or manipulated link profiles are a liability. Use Ahrefs to audit referring domains and identify any link patterns that could trigger a Google penalty post-acquisition.
Model traffic concentration risk — if 60%+ of traffic comes from a single keyword cluster, your equity value is fragile. Factor this into your multiple negotiation.
Monthly revenue is calculated as: (Sessions × Pages/Visit) ÷ 1,000 × CPM for display, with affiliate revenue earning approximately 3× the display CPM rate on the affiliate portion. The 36× multiple (3 years of annual revenue) is a common rule of thumb for stable content sites. Sites with strong growth trajectories or diversified revenue often trade at 40–48×; declining sites may trade at 20–28×.
Use the Website Revenue Calculator for a more detailed CPM prediction based on content type, audience geography, and monetization mix.
An editable Excel workbook — 5-year income statement, balance sheet, cash flow, DCF + exit-multiple valuation, and a deal tab with debt schedule, IRR & MOIC. Pre-filled with the inputs above; every assumption recalculates.