Part of the Buying a Business Toolkit
This tool is part of the Buying a Business toolkit — combine it with the LBO model, working capital analysis, and acquisition financing.
View Full Toolkit →The calculator blends two models. The first is a straightforward ad revenue calculator: sessions × pages-per-visit × CPM. The second is a CPM prediction engine built from data across 100+ small websites, adjusted for content type, audience geography, device mix, and monetization strategy.
The default settings assume a basic information blog with 50,000 monthly visits, 2.5 pages per session, and a $4 CPM — generating roughly $500/month. The model is designed to get the order of magnitude right. There are many small factors that can swing results 20–30%, but we're focused on explaining the gap between a $3.50 CPM and a $35 CPM.
Commercial Intent: How easy is it to connect your audience to a product or purchase decision? A news site is low; a product review site is high. Moving up in commercial intent has the biggest single impact on predicted CPM, particularly if you can layer in affiliate offers.
Audience Geography: US and Canadian traffic still commands a significant premium. EU traffic has recovered somewhat since GDPR but remains in a second tier. Everyone else is materially lower, though that gap is narrowing as digital ad markets mature globally.
Device Mix: Desktop still earns more than mobile, though the gap is closing. Mobile is growing faster, and the mobile advertising ecosystem continues to improve. Plan for convergence over the next few years.
Multiple ad units on the same page compete with each other. The first slot gets the highest bidder; each subsequent slot gets a progressively lower-quality bid. Page-level RPM captures this diminishing return and gives a more realistic estimate of real-world earnings.
36x monthly revenue is a commonly used rule-of-thumb multiple for web-based businesses with predictable ad or affiliate income. It represents roughly 3 years of revenue. Actual multiples vary widely based on growth trajectory, traffic quality, and revenue diversification — use this as a quick sanity check against a seller's asking price, not as a definitive valuation.
This calculator focuses on ad and affiliate revenue models. For e-commerce or SaaS businesses, the revenue model is different — use the LBO model to build a fuller picture of enterprise value.